The automotive industry is showing signs that we might’ve reached the endgame for cars. What does it mean? Is it actually true?
While a petrolhead like me sees a car as a beautiful blend of art, science, and engineering, I won’t deny that it’s merely a transportation tool to most people. After all, cars are deep down nothing more than four-wheeled boxes made to conveniently take us places, right?
However, seeing cars from their practical standpoint makes us wonder — since all cars pretty much look the same nowadays and have been basically solving the same problems for years now, does that mean we’ve reached peak car? Isn’t there anything more to come?
Of course, this isn’t an entirely new question. Indeed, the ‘peak car’ hypothesis was first observed in the mid-1990s and started gaining popularity in the mid-2000s. Yet, the question is still worth reviewing, especially with the recent rapid growth in tech and considering that automotive production peaked around 2017.
Thus, I’m taking this opportunity to put my geek hat on and take you on a deep dive into the ‘peak car’ theory and the arguments revolving around it. And to prevent me from further digressing from the title, why don’t I spill the answer out for you now?
So have we reached peak car? Technically yes, but it’s not that simple.
Let me explain…
The ‘Peak Car’ Theory
According to “A Brief History of Motion” by journalist Tom Standage, peak car is the point at which car ownership levels off and starts to decline. Simply put, it’s the theory that once customers reach maximum interest in buying and owning a car, they would begin looking for alternatives, effectively leading to a peak in car production and sales, only to decline slowly.
Of course, the list of possible causes is rather long. There’s traffic congestion, rising fuel prices, cultural shifts, financial crisis, *cough* a global pandemic *cough*, and more. Not to forget, vehicles are getting more versatile and reliable these days, so people could usually settle with a car/truck/SUV for years, running hundreds of thousand miles without needing to buy another one.
But believe it or not, the idea that people could become less enthusiastic about owning an automobile was predicted long ago, just when car ownership started to become popular in the 1920s, in fact.
So, here goes a brief history lesson.
How It Started (1925-1999)
We could trace the peak car conversation back to 1925, when American traffic control expert Miller McClintock predicted that car ownership would reach a saturation level and stop growing. He made his prediction, assuming that once the road is full of vehicles, the idea of traveling with an automobile would become less attractive due to traffic jams. But of course, that premise was pretty laughable at that time since the concept of privately owning a car was still only feasible for the rich.
However, as the economy rose approaching the 21st century, cars eventually became more affordable and a necessity for many. Almost every household in developed countries like the US had at least one motor vehicle, traveling an average distance of 10,000 miles per year. And with the world’s population on the rise, enlarging street capacities would only lead to more cars on the road.
So there it was; McClintock’s predictions were coming full circle as researchers noticed a slowed traffic growth in some developed economies during the mid-1990s. At this moment, the ‘peak car’ assumption was proposed as a hypothesis and brought to the public’s attention.
The Realization of Peak Car (2000-2019)
Since then, countless researchers have tried to validate whether we’ve reached the endgame for car travel. Studies were conducted in many western countries, believing that the peak car theory had already been achieved since the early 2000s due to various interrelated causes.
For instance, one of the first studies regarding peak car was conducted in the UK, with one of its transport journals reporting a near 30% fall in morning traffic in congested cities like London and Birmingham between 1994 and 2003. Moreover, with the introduction of the congestion charge, improved public transport services, and reallocation of road capacity to make space for bikers and pedestrians, there was about a 17% decrease in the average distance traveled by British motorists between 2002 and 2018 — down from 9,200 to 7,600 miles per year.
Similar peak car signs can also be found in the US as the number of miles driven per vehicle and per person has never exceeded the level in 2004; instead, it dropped to levels last seen during the 1990s. Aside from traffic jams, other proposed causes were related to the rising cost of running a vehicle, like fuel prices, parking fees, and insurance costs. Not to mention the population shifts from suburbs to cities, offering people choices to live closer to where they need to go.
In addition, the arrival of on-demand e-hailing rides, car sharing platforms, and online shopping trends has really created a cultural shift, especially for Millennials and Gen-Zs. Indeed, young adults in Canada, Britain, Norway, France, Sweden, and South Korea now qualify to drive later than they used to. Furthermore, a 2016 McKinsey & Company survey in China — the country most responsible for driving global car sales — showed that 60% of consumers no longer consider car ownership a status symbol, with 40% believing that owning a vehicle isn’t as important as it used to be.
Honestly, I could go on with more stats and evidence, but it’s clear now the peak car era has reached a global scale. With the drawbacks of owning and traveling with a private vehicle and the addition of better alternatives, it was only natural for people to reconsider whether they even needed a car, even if they could afford one.
Covid (Almost) Killed the Need for Cars (2020-Present)
Unsurprisingly, the Covid-19 pandemic created yet another global automotive industry crisis, worse than what we saw back in 2008’s Great Recession. With almost everyone adopting the work-from-home culture, car production and sales hit rock bottom during the first half of 2020. Although they eventually recovered by the second half of that year, the new “remote” culture was here to stay, even two years after the pandemic started.
According to TomTom NV, the global traffic congestion remained way below pre-Covid levels since home offices, flexible work hours, and teleconferences have been standardized by many companies. As a result, the global traffic congestion was 10% lower in 2021 than in 2019, while congestion during peak hours fell by an average of 19% between those two years.
At this point, we might be confirming we’ve at least reached peak car or even passed it. Although it’s uncertain to predict if using vehicles won’t rise again, in some regions, the times may have shifted from cars being transportation essentials into convenient luxury goods.
The Car Industry is Still Moving Forward!
Now, despite the fact we may have reached what the theorists called ‘peak car,’ it’s unfortunate that it ignores the bleeding-edge innovations introduced around these four-wheeled vehicles. Meanwhile, carmakers pour roughly everything they have into ensuring the next improvement is a significant enough step to drive a product category forward.
Sure, all cars pretty much look the same nowadays — all have four wheels, an engine, a trunk, a steering wheel, and a couple of seats. But let’s not forget the auto industry is currently in the middle of a revolution. The rise of EVs alone could impact the future of mobility in terms of autonomy, performance, efficiency, and more.
As we’re noticing a decrease in car use, most Tesla owners are enjoying its AI-based autonomous driving feature, which is getting smarter by the day. We’ve also seen unbelievable acceleration figures from heavy electric pickups like the Rivian R1T and GMC Hummer EV, completing the 0-60 mph run in around 3 seconds. The new Ford F-150 Lightning’s battery can even supply electrical power to your house when needed! Electric vehicles unlocked a world of possibilities their internal combustion-powered counterparts could never even hope to offer.
On the other hand, while an all-electric future is pretty much inevitable at this point, gas-powered cars and hybrids aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, especially with equally revolutionary stuff happening on their end. For example, the 4-seater hybrid Koenigsegg Gemera has a combined power output of up to 1,700 hp from a tiny 2.0-liter 3-cylinder engine and three electric motors, with a claimed 0-62 mph time of 1.9 seconds and a 249 mph top speed – in a family car! I dare you to show these specs to someone from just ten years ago, and I bet they’d have a hard time believing you.
Last Words
The bottom line is that we may have reached the point where people don’t have to commute as much and don’t have to upgrade their vehicle every couple of years. And honestly, people who feel less enthusiastic about owning a car are not to blame here since they see it as merely a transportation device, which is fine. Still, the truth is that vehicles are as helpful as they are with or without the bleeding-edge technologies being introduced around them.
However, let’s not forget the Tesla Roadster and Cybertruck are still happening, Aeromobil flying cars are available for pre-orders, and even Hyundai’s promising an in-car VR support turning the cabin into whatever virtual space you desire.
Therefore, regardless of whether we’ve genuinely reached peak car or not, we shouldn’t let that plateau make us ignore all the incredible innovations in this industry driving us forward, or we might miss it.
